Trump Threatens To “Shut Down” Government Over Border Security, Meets With NYT Publisher

Not too long ago, in a less turbulent time before the trade wars, the biggest political risk facing the market was the threat of a government shutdown. Well, as of this morning that too is back on the table when in his latest Sunday morning…

Army Selects Firms To Design Next High-Tech Assault Rifle For “Decades Of Hybrid Wars”

The United States Army is preparing for decades of hybrid wars across multiple domains – space, cyberspace, air, land, and, maritime. Back in October, we examined the Army’s latest Training and Doctrine Command report, which highlights how the next round of hybrid wars could begin somewhere…

Distinguishing Civil War from Social Anarchy

Civil wars are made by certain distinct actions of public officials and are not simply an emergent condition that occurs after a certain level of street violence is reached. But we are now facing a kind of hideous synthesis of Mao’s Red Guards and the Manson…

Russia Liquidates Its US Treasury Holdings

Last month we showed that as Trade Wars began in April, the world’s central banks and other official institutions dumped more Treasuries than in any month since January 2016, some $48.3BN, perhaps over concerns of others selling first, and precipitating a sharp move higher in…

Are Trade Wars Deflationary Or Inflationary: Here Is The Answer

When it comes to trade wars, such as the tit-for-tat escalation currently being waged between the Trump administration and the rest of the world, one burning question that investors have to answer is whether the outcome of such a trade feud will be inflationary –…

Why One Trader Thinks Trade War Will Send The Dollar Tumbling

According to conventional wisdom, trade wars are bullish for the dollar, for two main reasons: they tend to be inflationary (import prices spike), and they impact risk assets, resulting in a flight for USD-denominated safety. Indeed, just today, Bloomberg writes that for dollar bulls, Trump’s…

Active Managers Go ‘All-In’ Again As “Growth/Value Bubble Looks Ominously Similar To Late 1999”

Despite trade wars, central bank tightening, declining economic fundamental data, and an Emerging Market crisis, according to one survey, active US investment managers are presently more than 100% invested, on average. Source: Dana Lyons’ Tumblr However, while US equities continue to charge ahead, alarm bells…

As Trade War Escalates, Is China Running Out Of “Tit” For Trump’s “Tat”?

In the space of a few hours last night, the US-China trade wars escalated from a modest $50 billion grenade to a $200 billion plus-plus bunker-buster with promises and threats of “strong retaliation” to the last retaliation (driven by the first retaliation) as China stepped…

Here Is The Stunning Reason Why Treasury Yields Blew Out In April

As Trade Wars began, the rest of the world dumped more Treasuries in April than in any month since January 2016… Hedge funds were buyers (as implied by the rise in holdings from the Cayman Islands)…they added $15,2 billion in April – the most ever……