“Self-Fulfilling Contagion”: This Is The Worst Case Scenario For Turkey

With Turkey’s inflation soaring to a 15 year high as the ongoing result of a currency in meteoric free fall, coupled with tumbling capital markets and record high interest rates, both from unsustainable domestic imbalances as well as the prospect of a doubling of steel…

Sumo SOMA Days, Cyclical Momentum, & The Eurodollar Curve

Via Nordea, …with the US expansion now the second longest ever, energy-price base effects on inflation about to turn less positive, dollar-negative comments from the White House, and front-loaded contributions to benefit plans of mid-September maybe it’s time to back up of the truck and…

Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge Warns Of Imminent Inflation Surge

As if inflation wasn’t “mysterious” enough to the Fed already, recently the New York Fed joined the Atlanta Fed in releasing its own measure to track underlying inflation called, simply, the Underlying Inflation Gauge. What is notable is that this latest inflation tracker shows prices…

Consumer Spending Update: Confidence in the Economy Remains High

Despite reports that inflation is at a six-year high, Americans remain upbeat about the economy. The Rasmussen Reports Economic Index remained unchanged at 137.9 this month, down less than a half a point from May. Enthusiasm about the economy started to grow immediately following Donald…

3 Months After ‘Harvey’ – Boom Narrative Goes Bust

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners, If indeed this inflation hysteria has passed, its peak was surely late January. Even the stock market liquidations that showed up at that time were classified under that narrative. The economy was so good, it was bad;…

EURUSD Gives Up Draghi Gains On “Protectionism” Concerns, Inflation Forecast Cut

ECB has unveiled its growth and inflation forecasts (modestly raising 2018 growth while cutting 2019 inflation expectations): ECB GDP Projections: 2018: 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%), 2019: 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%), 2020: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%) ECB Inflation Projections: 2018: 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%), 2019: 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%), 2020: 1.7%…