If Democrat Mark Kelly defeat Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race, he can take office as early as Nov. 30th.
Per ABC “Because the contest is a special election to finish McCain’s term, the winner could be sworn in as soon as the results are officially certified. Other winners in the November election won’t take office until January.”
This could hurt Republican chances of confirming a replacement for Justice Ginsburg.
Currently, Republicans have a 53-47 advantage and Mike Pence is able to break a tie.
However, 2 Republican Senators have already said they will not vote for a Ginsburg replacement, Susan Collins and Elizabeth Murkowski.
If McSally is defeated and a replacement for Ginsburg is not confirmed by November 30th, Republicans can not afford a single additional defection.
Polling has looked very bad for McSally and very good for Kelly. Kelly currently leads by a current average of 6.7% in polls tracked by RealClearPolitics.