India and China will have tensions that will continue to rise, that’s no debate. Everyone by now understands that the US and China relationship will decay as well. Geopolitically the surface is shifting and creating earthquakes all over from the Americas to the Eurasia landmass. There are so many questions and problems in the current situation regarding all countries. Even the smaller countries that will be affected by the giants around them shaking the ground. Every footprint will shake the trees and every push will change the weather. Europe, US, Russia, and China will bother everyone that wants to part in any conflict cold or hot. But none of them will have a choice. And one country decided rather than being passive, just kill some soldiers of a hostile country above you.
The escalation between India and China is not only one of military prowess, but an economic one primarily. Many Americans believe we are going to be able to bring back the manufacturing businesses back to the US. However, with our current fiscal status and health of the banking system, it will be severely difficult to do so. In addition, we the US should ask themselves, do you really want or need clothing manufacturing back here in the states? Is it important to have fidget spinner and other toy manufacturing back in the US for creating toy jobs? High value added manufacturing jobs in aerospace sound important because the horizon of space related industries in the future. But do we need automobile manufacturing back in the US and do we want them anyway?
Right now because of the changes from the pandemic, the demand for a car for commute has plummeted. In addition, the median household has nowhere near the expendable income for a car as it had before the coronavirus. The cost to bring those jobs back might be currently too much of a high price when the US faces financial catastrophe. Simply put, quite a lot of jobs in China don’t seem to be worth coming back to the US. So where do they go? To mostly US ally oriented nations. For instance, Mexico where GoPro moved their manufacturing plant or Vietnam where Microsoft moved some of their tablet manufacturing jobs. But India appears to be the country where you can take a pipeline of everything and anything US owned straight down from China. This is a monumental opportunity for India, the US, and Western allied nations.
For China this is a colossal threat that needs to be stamped out. It makes sense why the CCP are moving the way they are in the South China Sea, Belt and Road trade route, and India China border. It‘s clear now after many years why the invasion of Tibet was necessary. It also shows insight how long they were thinking about things like shifting dominant economic and political power from the US to China. Take a look at a map yourself and think about the ambitions of the CCP from Turkey, to India, and to Philippines. One country especially poses a large threat and is currently considered a hostile enemy in the eyes of the communist party.
After the debt traps and bully behavior of the communist regime the nations around the region are beginning to understand now. They are understanding they are not partners nor allies. The nations like Pakistan, Cambodia, and Ethiopia are understanding they are tributary states, if not now then later. This is exactly what the people of Xinjiang and Tibet understand. The business deals to lopsided interests for the CCP to conquer critical infrastructure of neighboring nations is the new world invasion. It is the new strategies of economic warfare. To seize high volume prospective ports, blood vessel highways, and confiscation of vital mineral mining zones without a war. All without physical conflict, to invade a nation without them knowing it.
The geopolitical interests of the central and south Asian is critical for China to finish their hopes of a trade route of the world that they own. As we can tell so far, the Chinese don’t necessarily want to rule the world. They want to clearly rule the entire Eurasian African landmass, then maybe later they’ll see about the rest of the world. The dying question citizens of the free world are asking themselves is, what the hell is the rest of the world going to do about it? Unfortunately, we see many bending the knee and collapsing like houses of cards. Spineless worms squirming for any pat on the head. The free people then begins to ask themselves, what about the US? What the hell are they going to do about it?
It’s no coincidence the Trump administration are turning their relationship focus towards India in regards to different industries. One of them being medical supplies will play an important role in the future as we now see the vulnerabilities of having a single source entity for supplies. We can fully expect to see nations diversify medical related industries in their homes countries as well as a bulk of it in India. To be honest because of time constraints against the CCP motives, we should immediately look into sending the industries in China straight down. American companies should try to in a sensible manner bring jobs back if they can and if not, head down to India. The unfortunate circumstance for the US in this supply chain trap provides a unique problem for the US.
The US have moved most of its manufacturing in every industry to mainly in China. Aside from the problematic tension between the two nations, the movement of these manufacturing jobs back to the mainland is going to be more difficult than people think. Especially when we are facing difficulties with a dollar crisis, to bring manufacturing back seems highly complex. The middle class in the US are much less well off than the middle class of Japan or that of Germany. In the US, the risks of riots, civil unrest, and social breakdown will be more prevalent and much more larger in scale. Spending time trying to bring back iPhone case manufacturing might not be the best use of time or money. Focusing on other heavy industries of the future should be the target interests in the next coming decade. We should leave entry manufacturing goods to other nations.
The demographics of India is currently in the booming state as well as their economic growth and outlook. Many contest that technology in India in some ways are outpacing that of other developed countries. For instance, digital identification and digital payment systems appear to be ahead of the curve akin to other East Asian nations. Different countries seem to have different strengths. For example, the US is good in innovation, Europe does well with regulations, and East Asian countries seem to be good with experimentation or pushing the limits of technology. The adoption and roll out of technologies seem to be quicker in East Asia than it is anywhere else. This is good to see how to fix any incoming mistakes, but also a bit of a con in that, the west is slower.
At a time when there is the newly minted Cold War 2 regarding industries like space, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and more, slowness is costly. The narrative arc from Mike Pompeo is clear and Americans are aware of the state of the national stance with China. Many are linking World War 2 and Nazi Regime memories with the current CCP regime. The alliance between Iran, Russia, and China is beginning to draw lines clear for the world where the sides are. Going from here nations surrounding the tensions between the two nations will have to navigate their county and citizens the best way they can. Unfortunately, during these sorts of times in history, many don’t make it through unscathed. For India, it appears they are already moving towards a decoupling with China and allying themselves with the US side.
It’s great that the CCP are bullies to everyone around them and treat smaller nations as tributary states. It turns countries like India and others to be friendlier towards the west. But how will India, still undeveloped compared to China, compete for the global market share of industries and demand? Well first they are going to have to bounce back with vigor from the aftermath of the coronavirus. A country like India won’t have the luxuries of the US when it comes to printing capabilities. But on the other hand, Indian citizens although unfortunately not being able to receive generous benefits, are forcefully incentivized to bounce back. Many countries that don’t have luxurious unemployment benefits don’t have a choice, they have to get back to work. They have to get things going.
China is the same, they have to back to work. But there’s many issues, including the Three Gorges Dam that might break at any moment. If it does, the future of China seems more likely to break apart. The CCP will likely lose power, and civil societies between differing ideologies in China will split. Possibility into different provinces and what not. Their economy was already slowing, and after this pandemic it will be much slower. This gives an opportunity for India to make up for lack of industries, technologies, and other key segments of economy in comparison to an already ballooned China. It’s daring, but maybe Chinese companies will try to break away from the CCP to operate freely from their grip. It’s likely the CCP have already made contingency plans to mitigate something like this, but with the current sentiment towards the CCP, it might be possible.
If that’s a scenario possible, then it would be an interesting sight to see anti CCP Chinese heading towards India to operate against the will of the regime. This will undoubtedly raise the tensions between the two nations to new heights. After the recent border dispute that resulted in deaths, the game is on. For both nations, they are at each other’s throats. This is an interesting situation for the CCP to be hostile with most nations around that region. An odd way to try to better their country with wolf warrior diplomacy. This is because from wolf warrior diplomacy, they obfuscate from actual warfare tactics. An example are the multiple Chinese consulates with actual spies stealing intellectual property and vaccine data from the US. In face to face, they say we are behaving professionally with decency. Behind our backs they are stabbing non stop.
Some in our political apparatus don’t seem to understand this to be true and/or seem to come to terms this is going on. This is because they still buy into the Chinese being the rising power. That western nations need to depend on Chinese economic growth. But in reality, the Chinese growth narrative is highly likely dead. The balance sheets in everyone’s eyes are scary and the debt with leverage of China is too much to bear. China will not be growing 6% or 7%, it will be lucky to have a maybe 3% or 4%. This is going to be devastating for many Chinese in rural lands which counts about a little more than half a billion Chinese. In addition, the Chinese in urban areas will have opportunities dry up as well because global demand is dropping all over because of the pandemic.
Because of this coronavirus growth shortfall, the CCP will be challenged with their own people. By now different factions in the communist leadership, government, cities, and people should already be forming. The Chinese people might be at the cusp of changing the social order in the ancient country. What happens in China is going to be very interesting in how the country unfolds into the future and how it affects the world. The nation as it stands today, might break away into parts. Maybe even break off Tibet and Xinjiang to original regions of autonomy. Again, a lot of this heavily depends on the economic outlook of the country and the opportunity the people sees with their own eyes.
Growth outlook seems more on the downside than the upside. But when looking at a country that might inherit logistical supply chains from many countries things look bright. There is an important intersection of all nations where they might all hurl downhill for some time. That is currency. The money printing is going beyond anyone’s imagination and the US debt will soon breach 27 trillion. The effects from this will put pressure for citizens around the world. How the political mood in different nations will be an interesting thing to keep tabs of. It’s going to tell us what the citizens in the country might do with their capital. This will give direction of where investors believe might be the country for a good future. So long as India and China don’t fall into conflict, it might be a great opportunity.
It’s no secret that ground and navy forces of both countries are mobilizing and engaging in escalation. In the border region we are hearing claims of both sides disengaging, but seeing the opposite. We know two things. One is they both don’t want to be messed with no matter what. Two is they both don’t want to engage in conflict no matter what. Currently the COVID-19 is making its run in India. The three gorges dam is posing a monumental threat to the existence of China. In addition, future food shortages especially from the aftermath of locusts might also create a very stressful situation in the South Asia region as well. But we will have to see as China continues to try and grab territory from India.
So long as things are played smart and not jumped into conclusion then US and allies will bob and weave well. With the onset of financial collapse in many important economic nations, we are in for a rough ride. The global money printing is at a scale unimaginable and it seems the US debt will hit 30 trillion possibility at the end of this 2020 year. If not, for sure 2021 were we go from a deflationary environment to possibly seeing inflationary forces creeping. Hopefully we don’t see a change of money hands that increases velocity so much that we enter hyperinflation. But you never know. Gold appears to be a stronger option for wealth preservation. People might rather rush to change money hands for gold and silver.
Maybe after the cryptocurrencies bottom and begin to make their new bull cycle run, that can be a catalyst hyperflation. The fear of missing out FOMO might trigger because of a lack of opportunities around the world. Regular people will be seeking any sort of yield. That can result in higher velocity of money. A FOMO scenario creating velocity, entering growing inflation, resulting in fear of hyperinflation FOHI. We will have to wait and see. Because maybe China and India do not settle their border disputes. Maybe they decide enough is enough, and the nations of the world will have to take sides.
Just stop and think about that for a moment. A country inching closer in your territory and trying to claiming it. That’s called an invasion in the normal world. But an odd thing is happening where everyone is trying to keep calm, but acting aggressively. For instance, India banning 47 more Chinese apps in addition with a goal to ban any Chinese apps. Don’t gloss over and think about the significance of this. These Chinese apps make a lot of money using that data as well as using that data to better there tech applications. By cutting that off you are cutting important blood vessels for Chinese tech companies. This of course is enraging the already disliked Chinese apps like Huawei and TikTok. The anger is growing in the international community towards Chinese companies and the CCP. All the better for the neighbor it’s disputing with down south.
India will need to seize this opportunity as well as the western nations helping them out. It’s our chance to correct the west’s mistakes and do what is right. To do what Americans in the past were hoping to do. By having India takeover parts of the important manufacturing industries and supply chains, it will be successful in what the US set out to do in the beginning in the 1970s. We are looking down a barrel of a gun. Keep your principles close, operate with honor. Generations risk living in a terminator afterworld. Stand or kneel. This is the chance for a large country of upwards 1.3 billion to become the largest democratic free nation on earth. This is the chance for India to be what China could not.
Author: Peter Samuel Kim