Extending the run of disappointing ‘soft’ survey data (plunging to its weakest since Dec 2016), today’s Empire State Manufacturing survey fell notably below expectations.
But under the hood, the survey was very worrisome… the six-months-ahead-general-business-conditions sub index (aka ‘hope’) collapsed at the fastest rate since the last two recessions…
As Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economis David Rosenberg noted, The NY Empire manufacturing index had more of a Yankees than a Mets feel to it. The real key was the meltdown in the forward-looking six-month expectations index.
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‘Hope’ Just Died In The Empire State